Justin Upton is a different animal. His numbers fluctuate wildly from year to year and are not driven by a BABIP spike like BJ’s was. I don’t know what happened with him in 2010 but it seems like some of his issues last season were injury related. His home/road splits are crazy big which also makes me wonder how he will hold up outside of Arizona. Upton has hit .307/.389/.584 with 67 HR and an 11% walk rate with a 21.8% K rate in 1496 home plate appearances. In 1534 road plate appearances he has hit .250/.325/.406 with only 41 HRshis walk rate drops to 9.3% and his K rate goes up to 24%.

Dave Cameron did an analysis on not judging him based on those noting that he plays a lot of road games in San Fran, LA and San Diego. His point is all schedules aren’t completely equal with the number of games played in pitcher vs hitters parks. That doesn’t completely add up considering he hits .291/.354/.547 in Petco park. This makes me wonder if he is an extreme creature of habit and his home routine is different than the road or if Arizona really has padded his numbers greatly.

I believe that it takes about 1,000-1,500 MLB plate appearances to really kinda figure out who a hitter is. Roughly 3 full seasons of hitting. If you’ve stabilized at that point, I don’t see you getting a ton better. We see this evidence locally by seeing a) how Desmond and Bernadina seem to have “figured it out” in 2012 right in this threshold of PAs, and perhaps moreso with Espinosa who now sits at nearly 1500 PAs and is about to have a very telling 2013. If Espinosa strikes out 180 times while hitting .240 again … well that’s who he is, and there won’t be any more potential.

After 4,000 plate appearances I don’t understand why people don’t just accept him for what he is: a low contact guy who strikes out a lot but hits for some power, steals bases, can draw a walk at an ok clip and plays a little above average defense. He is a nice complimentary player but the guy just isn’t a superstar.

I’ve read and heard things for years about the attitude issues of both of the Uptons. I remember BJ being a egotistical person when I was playing ball. They are replacing 2 very respected players in Prado and Jones. I am a firm believer in team chemistry after seeing the Giants and Nationals last season.

Yes the Braves have the potential to have huge offensive numbers in their lineup but Uggla is trending downwards fast, the 3rd base platoon is questionable, Justin Upton could be following his brother in terms of not being a superstar or he could have another 2011. Heyward could continue on his really good 2012 or he could also repeat 2011. They will strike out a TON and the defense will be a negative for the Braves this year.

Yes they are a good team but they have more question marks than the Nationals in my eyes.

As for Atlanta; that’s a scary good offense now. McCann, BJ Upton, Freeman easily 20-homer guys, Uggla, Justin Upton and Heyward all 30-homer capable guys. Simmons at short looks quality, and whoever they can find to play third is their weak link. But thats a good lineup no doubt.

Good question; are they improved for 2013? I guess it depends on how much you like the Upton brothers. Were they both in bad situations that kept their production down in 2012? I know their potential is fantastic … but Prado was a stud in 2012. Probably a wash for 2012. Take this core group, add a 3rd baseman and that’s a darn good young team. Yes indeed, Nats have their hands full.

I’m not sure the Upton trade helps them this year, actually – losing Bourn, Chipper & Prado for Upton, Upton & Chris Johnson is likely a push. But it’s three years of Upton for one year of Prado, and the Braves OF is now young (the elder Upton is 28, the younger 25, and Freeman 23) with a very impressive upside. Of course, as Linus once said: “there’s no heavier burden than a great potential!”

An aphorism that applies equally to the Nats, of course. The next 3-5 years in the NL East should be a lot of fun

Double “hear hear” about the “reporters are lazy” comment. Here’s some other lazy narratives for you that I wish would get retired: “Ted Lerner is cheap.” or, “Bryce Harper has an attitude problem.”

Unfortunately, most reporters are lazy and tend to emphasize those stories that fit their readers/viewers stereotypes, which is why they conveniently ignore counterfactuals like the Nats passing on Bourn to instead make a much more sensible move in trading for Span. But ultimately, who cares what the dolts say as long as we win a championship?