Comments on: Ask Boswell 12/31/12 Edition

By: Todd Boss

Todd Boss — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 14:54:28 +0000

I don’t think I mentioned a single thing about his defensive capabilities (or lack there-of) in this post; I was talking about his offensive capabilities. Offensively, Moore has proven he can hit for power consistently at every level he’s ever been challenged with.

If we’re worried about his OF defense, then lets put Tyler Moore at first base where he belongs. 1B was his natural position in the minors; he only tried out LF in 2011′s spring training to try to get some positional flexibility for the team. At first his defensive liabilities are limited. Now of course the problem is that IF the team locks down 1B for years to come with LaRoche, then Moore is really squeezed out of playing time. Eventually, I think he may prove valuable enough to be worth something in trade to a team that could use a 1B/DH type.

Of course, that being said … i’ve often said that I don’t really care about the defensive capabilities of my left fielder or my first baseman. I don’t have a problem with an athletic enough guy like Morse running around left and hitting 25-30 homers. A wise man once said (paraphrasing): “You judge the defensive abilities of first baseman by seeing how well they hit.”

By: Joe

Joe — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 11:49:00 +0000

Todd, I disagree about Moore. Though he crushed the ball at the plate, he is totally lost in the outfield, has no ability to get a good jump, has no idea how to run routes and his arm is subpar.

By: Mark L

Mark L — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 14:57:57 +0000

Thanks, John C., I didn’t realize Mike G.’s splits were so bad.
Strictly a 1 batter type pitcher.
Hopefully, the Nats sign Howell and the pen should be set.

By: Todd Boss

Todd Boss — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 14:50:43 +0000

Morse clarification: Oh, ok that’s fair. And I agree; just as Lannan’s outlook went south (understandibly), i can totally see Morse being incredibly disappointed to move to a role player. But I’ll continue to argue this point: IF we re-sign LaRoche, then the team will get more value out of trading Morse now for badly needed farm system depth in key areas than keeping him on the bench. Someone out there will gladly pay for a 30 homer capable guy on a $6.75M one year deal. GLADLY. Meanwhile, if an outfielder goes down we have two excellent options to fill in already sitting on the bench (Bernadina, with his breakout 2012 and Moore, who is a 30 homer/year guy in the minors and who didn’t really look that overmatched last year in his rookie season). If LaRoche goes down, we have short-term coverage in Tracy and longer term coverage in Rendon (with some positional juggling).

I do like Bray; his injuries last year were not arm related and he’s a local kid with local ties (at least as far as you can call Virginia Beach “local”).

By: Todd Boss

Todd Boss — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 14:45:29 +0000

Fair points all. In my soon-to-be-posted WAR analysis of the 2013 team, I have Bray giving us a 0.3 next year as a conservative estimate. Gonzalez gave the team a 0.5 last year. Perhaps I have overrated Gonzalez’s effectiveness.

By: PDowdy

PDowdy — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 14:07:55 +0000

Wally, by all accounts Bray’s injuries were not arm related. That would at least provide some hope he can do what Gonzalez did last year for the Nats. I’m not saying he is going to be a world beater or anything like that but he should be able to replace Gonzalez. I think that is why they didn’t go hard after him.

Howell, in theory could replace Burnett, but he himself had a bit of a lucky season last year (ERA of 3.04 xFIP of 4.17) and hasn’t been the same since he missed the 2010 season. The difference in Howell and Gonzalez is that Howell can pitch to RH hitters if needed similar to Burnett. I think he is a downgrade from Burnett but not giving a reliever a 3 year deal makes sense.

By: Wally

Wally — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 01:59:58 +0000

Todd – no, I am not suggesting that morse is a cancer. By all accounts, he seems like a good guy (Jason Churchill, a Mariners blogger, once told me via Twitter that Morse was his favorite player while he was with the Mariners because he was so approachable and genuinely a nice guy). No, I meant it more like ‘if the Nats think he will become a clubhouse problem because he is being made a part time guy in his contract year, ok then trade him’. But I don’t agree that his salary makes him a non starter for the bench. If a team has genuine World Series aspirations and a middle of the pack payroll, both of which I think are true, then it comes down to how much value and insurance does he add. And in Morse’s case, I think it could be a lot. Other than pitchers get hurt more than position players, is it really so different than paying Lannan $5m last year for 6 starts? But I wouldn’t trade him for $.30/$1, because I think Morse is a substantially higher probability performer than Moore (and I like Moore). I don’t know if I’d take your package. the LOOGY would have to be good and more proven than Henry was.

John C – ok, Gonzalez maybe got lucky last year. I don’t think he is Aroldis Chapman. But Bray pitched 8 innings last year (with a WHIP over 2). He may work out great, i think Todd likes him too, and I hope he does, but it doesn’t seem like a smart bet to count on that happening from a guy coming off an injury. My guess is that Rizzo thinks he will flip Morse for a LHP for the pen, like Todd suggests. My question is, what would we have to add to get Jake McGee? That guy was an animal.

By: John C.

John C. — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 23:57:03 +0000

I think that it’s really easy to overrate Mike Gonzalez, and it will be similarly easy to replace him. Remember that the Nats didn’t sign him as a free agent until May 8 of last year. These guys are out there.

The other reason that Gonzalez won’t be wearing the curly W is that he was strictly a role player. RH batters hit .297/.378/.484 off of him last year. Yes, boys and girls, he allowed RH hitters an OPS of 862. For perspective, LaRoche led the Nationals with an OPS of .853 last year. Yikes! And while Gonzalez held LH batters to .179/.257/.269, Tyler Clippard was better against LH batters (.170/.260/.259). And Stammen (.198/.274/.331) did just fine against LH batters too, thanks. Without getting beaten like a drum by RH batters.

And the most important thing about Gonzalez is this: he’s not very good. Ask any Orioles fan you meet. The last really effective season that he had was in 2009. While his ERA was OK last year, his WHIP was not (1.318). His “effectiveness” was largely a result of the fact that his baserunners didn’t end up scoring as much you would have thought. Regression is not likely to be his friend. Oh, and he turns 35 in May.

But even if you’re just not satisfied with a RHP that can get LH batters out, if you just must have a LOOGY, know that there’s a very good chance that the Nats already have a better LHRP in the organization. Bill Bray is not only five years younger, if he is healthy he is better than Mike Gonzalez. Impressed by Gonzalez’s splits against LH hitters? In 2010 LH hitters managed only .106/.208/.298 off Bray. In 2011, only .180/.265/.292. His WHIP in both seasons was barely over 1.0. It’s quite likely that the reason that Rizzo didn’t spend heavily chasing after Gonzalez is that he has a good reason to believe that he already has a better pitcher in the fold.

The Nationals’ bullpens have been a strength the last 2-3 years. The guy who built those bullpens: Mike Rizzo. It’s just possible that he knows what he’s doing.

By: Todd Boss

Todd Boss — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 21:57:50 +0000

Morse and Willingham would be pretty good trade comparisons; both are defensive liability sluggers in the last year of an affordable FA contract. They likely would get identical returns. In theory Willingham returned a back-of-the-bullpen power arm and a close-to-the-majors positional replacement player.

What if Morse returned the Loogy we need plus a decent AA outfielder? Would that be a good trade?

By: Todd Boss

Todd Boss — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 21:55:04 +0000

Agree with you; I think they didn’t want to commit 3years to Burnett … but that they should have made more of an effort on Gonzalez. Maybe they like JP Howell more? I dunno; the nats make weird decisions on these relievers sometimes. Joel Peralta pitched really well for them … and then there was no effort to re-sign him (and he’s since gone on to pitch really, really well for Tampa). Perhaps it is club-house related moreso than performance related.

Are you implying that Morse is a clubhouse cancer? I don’t think you are; he seems to be a total clubhouse plus guy. Clubhouse cancer definitely implies get rid at all costs; think of what we had to do with the likes of Elijah Dukes, Nyjer Morgan, Lastings Milledge.

But lets say that the team re-signs LaRoche, leaving them with Morse still on the roster and significantly de-valued. Do you trade him for 30 cents on the dollar or just keep him? I think you still have to trade him; you just cannot pay a guy $7m to waste on the bench when you can still get something for him; he’s a FA at the end of the year at which point we’d get nothing.